Some HE 2020 guesses

I'm not going to call these predictions but rather guesses because that is what they are:

  • Merger of some research councils - at least at the back office level
  • Attempts by RCs to manage the duel problem of falling success rate/higher applications/less money by general raising of lower limits for bids to decrease bid rates
  • System leads to further clustering of research cash around small number of Universities
  • System leads to further clustering of research cash based on "do you wear a white coat?"
  • Quite a few universities cut out entirely simply because as the bid limits raise they don't have the expertise, infrastructure to bid and get hit with penalties for 'poor' bids
  • Shifting balance of power in some Universities between researchers and teachers as Universities realise that no matter how many interesting sociology papers Sarah turns out there is no cash at the other end
  • Increased pressure on ECRs because there is now less cash and it becomes increasingly unclear why and how churning out lots of papers in their own time will lead to a FTE post
  • TEF = Panic, REF = Metrics and Panic and many staff realising that they shaped their career around the wrong measures, more panic 
  • End of collective bargaining - performance related pay
  • A University falls?
  • Lots of McDonald Universities emerge?